State of Market, Portfolio & Watchlist Update
In this article, I cover:
- Portfolio update
- State of the market (Iran Conflict & AI) and my general portfolio stance
- Portfolio allocations, Watchlist valuation buy levels & Next Investment Steps: (đź”’Unlock with premium tier)
Portfolio Updates
The portfolio rebounded sharply over the last two weeks, gaining roughly +USD 49,000 and re-accelerating its outperformance: 16.24% annualized TWR over the last ~5 years, versus 11.62% for the S&P 500 and 13.45% for QQQ.
$AXON (Outstanding Q4 Earnings reported) and $NFLX (Dropped out of WBD acquisition) were the 2 primary contributors to this recent boost, and I was fortunate to have added to both positions near their 52-week lows (see below):
As of writing, $AXON and $NFLX have risen approximately +40% and +31% respectively since these 2 purchases roughly a month ago.
I'm unlikely to spend much time on these two positions going forward. My preference is to focus on companies still subject to unjustified pessimism, where the alpha opportunity is greatest, and that no longer appears to be the case for either names (we'll see). There are however, potentially three other names I'm considering at the moment, which I'll cover in the watchlist section below.
State of the market (Iran War & AI) & my general portfolio stance
On 28 February 2026, the US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, a coordinated air campaign that killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. I don't usually pay much attention to geopolitical events, but Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz on 2 March is genuinely unprecedented - the strait has never been shut down before in any prior conflict. That changes my calculus a little.
Around 20% of the world's oil supply passes through the strait, and Brent crude spiked from USD 73 to USD 93 within a week of the closure. The war also appears to be escalating toward civilian infrastructure (including desalination plant strikes in Bahrain), raising the risk that this drags well beyond Trump's planned "4-6 weeks".
With the Fed's rate announcement due on 18 March, I'm watching more closely than usual for a shift in tone toward hawkishness. Significant volumes of both oil and nitrogen-based fertilizers transit the Strait of Hormuz, and a prolonged shortage of either would feed directly into inflation.
As with every prior disruption over the years, I remain fully invested regardless of whatever the war or the Fed may bring, because I have conviction in the individual companies I own over the next 5 to 10 years. I view these situations as potential dip-buying opportunities and am ready to deploy my dry powder accordingly.
Separately, OpenAI recently announced it is scaling back ecommerce plans for ChatGPT. This has strengthened my conviction in two stocks on my watchlist and stoked my curiosity in a third potential addition which I will cover below. Between the Iran conflict and this OpenAI development, there's a reasonable chance I get an opportunity to pull the trigger once again in the coming days or weeks.
Watchlist Update & My Next Investment Steps:
Note: The following does not constitute financial advice/recommendations and is merely a journal of my own portfolio investment actions.
See below: (đź”’Unlock with premium tier):
Portfolio allocations (in USD) and my valuation watchlist buy levels are as follows...